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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 43-M.Hayball punts 37 yards to LV 5, impetus ends at LV 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-98-P.Turner.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.02 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model