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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 21

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 2-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.86 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP