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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston to NE 23 for 19 yards (15-M.Mapu).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.01 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model