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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New England Patriots
4th & 7 at the 31
New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 30
What Actually Happened
(2:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LAC 37 for -6 yards (3-D.James).
The Three Options
GO
+0.85 EP
What Happened
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.45 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP
KICK
+0.95 EP
Model's Pick
- 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
- 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
