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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 23

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.09 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model