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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 62

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(6:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 23 for -15 yards (3-D.James).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model