Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 69

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 62 yards to LAC 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on LAC-40-K.Williamson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model