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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 84-S.Smartt to NE 35 for 9 yards (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.20 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model