4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 9, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP