Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 8-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to KC 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 81-N.Remigio to KC 22 for 7 yards (93-M.Robinson). FUMBLES (93-M.Robinson), touched at KC 24, recovered by KC-26-D.Bush at KC 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.95 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model