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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 29 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to PIT 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-50-S.Bozeman.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.51 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP