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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 29 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 14-M.Araiza punts 44 yards to PIT 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-C.Austin to PIT 14 for no gain (21-J.Hicks; 41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model