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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model