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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.84 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model