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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(:48) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to PIT 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-C.Austin to PIT 28 for 14 yards (41-J.Winchester; 83-N.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.47 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP