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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 13

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 7-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP