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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 85

New York Giants 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to IND 37, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.95 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP