Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 86

New York Giants 28 – Indianapolis Colts 20

(13:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to IND 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.82 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 86, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model