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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 20 – New York Giants 28

What Actually Happened

(14:44) 8-R.Sanchez punts 32 yards to NYG 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model