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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 23

Indianapolis Colts 20 – New York Giants 28

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to NYG 23 for no gain (94-E.Chatman; 90-E.Garcia).

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.48 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model