Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 70

New York Giants 28 – Indianapolis Colts 20

(8:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to IND 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 6-A.Gould to IND 26 for 7 yards (45-T.Fox).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model