4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model