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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 45

Detroit Lions 31 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(12:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta to SF 26 for 19 yards (29-T.Hufanga).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.93 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model