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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 8

Detroit Lions 13 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 87-S.LaPorta (0-R.Green).

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.64 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model