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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 83

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to PHI 36, Center-44-T.Sieg. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 37 for 1 yard (47-D.Harris; 41-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.47 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP