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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to DAL 9, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model