Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

(6:43) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to PHI 21, Center-44-T.Sieg. 33-C.DeJean ran ob at PHI 35 for 14 yards (40-H.Luepke).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model