Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(15:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to TB 39, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-41-J.Windmon.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model