Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41

(3:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to TB 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Palmer to TB 15 for 2 yards (49-J.Rhattigan; 88-D.Chisena).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.41 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model