Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34

(5:30) 10-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 9-J.Tryon, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at CAR 23. 51-J.Russell for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.53 EP
64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model