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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model