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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to ARI 4, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 19 for 15 yards (86-C.Parkinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.99 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model