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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at LA 0. 26-K.Kinchens to LA 11 for 11 yards (14-Mi.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.39 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model