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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 10

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.53 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 10, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP