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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 10 for no gain (19-X.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP