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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 10-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to LA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 36, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model