4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to ARI 3, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.45 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP