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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to ARI 30, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-42-D.Taylor-Demerson, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 30.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.41 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP