4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 38 – Tennessee Titans 22

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 29 for 9 yards (50-S.Olubi).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model