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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 13

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.40 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model