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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to IND 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 22 for 14 yards (92-J.Harrell).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.74 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model