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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 60 yards to IND 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP