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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 5-J.Browning punts 41 yards to DAL 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP