4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 48

Dallas Cowboys 26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to TB 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model