Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to TB 6, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-T.Palmer to TB 5 for -1 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on TB-29-C.Izien, Illegal Blindside Block, 3 yards, enforced at TB 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.96 EP
71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model