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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP