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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(:05) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: TB-26-K.Merriweather has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.47 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model