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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 26

Miami Dolphins 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.08 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model