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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 19 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model