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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 23

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model